ARMENIA/AZERBAIJAN – Nagorno-Karabakh: fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces escalates south of Stepanakert – Ongoing armed clashes likely in the medium-term amid no sign of de-escalation

The fighting between the Azerbaijani forces and the separatists backed by Armenia is escalating on the southern side of Nagorno-Karabakh, while the frontline is believed to be just 15 km south of the separatist capital, Stepanakert.

9 November, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan claimed that the fighting over the control of the key city of Shusha was still ongoing, despite announcements to the contrary made by the separatists and Baku stating that the city had fallen into the hands of Azerbaijan. Several local sources are reporting that the city has indeed been re-captured by Baku, which would represent a major military success for Azerbaijan since the hostilities resumed in Nagorno-Karabakh 27 September. In Baku, the announced « liberation » of the city was greeted with joy 8 November.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijani artillery fire on Stepanakert has escalated over the last few hours, paving the way to a future assault on the city.

Ongoing fighting should be expected in the region given that the tension between Baku and Yerevan is unlikely to defuse in the short and medium-term.